Who Is Abandoning U.S. Treasuries?
Who Is Abandoning U.S. Treasuries?
Who is abandoning U.S. Treasuries?
The answer, based on the data, is: not quite as many people as you might think.
In 2020, foreign investors held roughly $7.1T of U.S. Treasury securities.
By 2026, that figure is around $9.2T.
So the great Treasury abandonment story appears to be... slightly overstated.
But something is changing.
Look at where capital has gone elsewhere.
The Magnificent 7 were worth roughly $8.5T at the end of 2020.
Today, theyre worth roughly $23.8T.
Thats more than $15T of additional market value.
And venture capital tells a similar story.
Global VC investment was approximately $336B in 2020.
In just the first half of 2026, it reached roughly $560B.
Six months.
More than the entire year of 2020.
Meanwhile, foreign investors bought a record $942B of U.S. equities and investment funds in the 12 months through July 2026.
So perhaps the story isnt: “Foreign investors are abandoning the U.S.”
Its: “Foreign investors are reallocating within the U.S.”
Treasuries are still attracting capital.
But so are: → U.S. equities → AI → Private equity → Private credit → Venture capital
The U.S. capital market has become a rather crowded restaurant.
Uncle Sam is asking for another trillion.
Nvidia is asking for another trillion.
Anthropic is asking for another trillion.
AI startups are asking for billions.
And investors are sitting at the table trying to decide what deserves the next dollar.
Thats the part I find interesting.
The question may not be whether the world wants U.S. assets.
Clearly, it does.
The question is: What return does capital require to choose Treasuries over everything else?
That may be one of the most important questions for the next decade.
And perhaps the Treasury market will give us the answer.
Hopefully before my next portfolio review.
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